SOURCE: The Lessons of Mumbai, 2009.
The November 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India, may qualify as India’s 9/11, significant in their audacity, their ambition, the complexity of the operation, and the diversity of targets according to a RAND study completed in December 2008 and updated in January 2009.
“India will continue to face a serious jihadist threat from Pakistan-based terrorist groups, and neither Indian nor U.S. policy is likely to reduce that threat in the near future,” said Angel Rabasa, lead author and a RAND senior political scientist. “Other extremist groups in Pakistan likely will find inspiration in the Mumbai attacks, and we can expect more attacks with high body counts and symbolic targets.”
The study provides evidence suggesting that planning began as far back as mid-2007, as shown in the timeline. The attacks were precisely planned and well-coordinated: The terrorists had detailed maps and information about each of the targets they hit, and the multiple targets were carefully chosen for their religious, political, and cultural values. The attacks killed more than 170 people and injured nearly 300.
“The defining characteristic of the Mumbai attack, and what makes it so alarming, is not just the ruthless killing, but the meticulous planning and preparation that went into the operation,” said Brian Michael Jenkins, a leading terrorism expert and RAND senior adviser. “This indicates a level of strategic thought a strategic culture that poses a difficult challenge: Not whether we can outgun the terrorists, but can we outthink them?”
The report analyzes key weaknesses in India’s general counterterrorism and threat-mitigation structure, including gaps in coastal surveillance, inadequate “target hardening,” incomplete execution of response protocols, response timing problems, inadequate counterterrorism training and equipment for the local police, limitations of municipal fire and emergency services, flawed hostage-rescue plans, and poor strategic communications and information management.
The attacks have significant and potentially far-reaching implications for India, Pakistan, and the international community. Specifically, India is inclined to hold Pakistan responsible for the attacks and may look for a way to deter future attacks. Both countries have nuclear weapons, making any military action a dangerous course, but continuous terrorist attacks on India from terrorist bases in Pakistan could provoke a military confrontation.
On the other hand, the focus on Pakistan should not obscure the fact that the terrorists likely had help from inside India. Local radicalization is a major goal of the terrorists and a major political and social challenge for India.
Still, the Mumbai attacks underscore the need to address the transnational sources of Islamist terrorism in India. How to do this is an extraordinarily difficult question that will require the international community to reassess its policies toward Pakistan.
The Lessons of Mumbai, RAND/OP-249-RC, ISBN 978-0-8330-4667-3, 2009.
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