Disease has been with us since the days of the Old Testament and is well chronicled there. Today we have new capabilities that may prevent the mass loss of life that these calamities brought in the past. But there are limitations and concerns and this article will discuss them a little later.
Avian Flu – H5N1 – has many experts concerned, but at the moment this is a disease of birds and not people. There have been a hundred or so cases of human H5N1 but in all but one of these cases the person contracted the disease from a bird, the one remaining set of cases has not been determined. Of these cases that were human approximately half have been fatal. This virulence and that it is rapidly being spread around the world by birds is why H5N1 is such a concern (concern not panic).
For this disease to become a human pandemic it would have to evolve to where it is readily passed between humans. At this time that is not happening. Experts are in conflict on if or when this will occur. Most animal diseases do not evolve into human ones, few do, vast majority don’t.
Avian Flu has not reached the US. Just returned from a interagency meeting in Alaska, the projected location where Avian Flu will enter the US. After tracking this for nearly half a decade and collecting tens of thousands of birds not one has been infected with H5N1, according to the US Fish and Game Dept.
Pandemic Flu vs. Annual Flu. The difference between the usual flu for which you may get shots every year and a pandemic flu is whether the virus is new and different (novel) to humans. With the annual flu there is within the human pool some resistance to the virus, but not enough to keep the disease from progressing around the world. A Pandemic Flu is a virus that humans in general have not seen before and to which there is little resistance. A large number people who are exposed will contract the disease.
History and Pandemics. In the last 100 years there have been three documented Pandemic Flu events. The worst of these was the Spanish Flu of 1918. It is estimated that 1/5 of the world population contracted this disease, of those approx. 20 million died+. The Flu and not the Allied Armies ended WWI. Not all pandemics are this lethal. The last one, the Asian Flu of 68, the fatality rate was only 20-30% higher than the death rate of a normal flu. In the US it was only 5% higher (34,000 in US). Last year's annual flu killed approx. 36,000 Americans and this was not a pandemic event.
Pandemic Flu is not a single day event. Typical are three to four waves that come over 12 to 18 months. So plans to avoid exposure need to cover a minimum of 6 to 9 months, as that is the time required for an effective vaccine to be developed and distributed. There are some experimental technologies that may reduce that timeline in the future. Other than complete isolation there is no way to completely eliminate all exposure; however there are prudent thing that can be done to limit risk of infection. Here are some tips from the Dept. of Homeland Security.
Stock a supply of water and nonperishable food, which can be useful in other types of emergencies.
Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze.
Cough or sneeze into your upper sleeve if you don't have a tissue.
Stay at home if you are sick.
Plan home learning activities and exercises.
Have materials such as books on hand.
Prepare backup plans for taking care of loved ones who are far away.
Consider working at home.
Ask your employer about how business will continue during a pandemic.
Check with your employer or union about leave policies.
Create a family emergency health plan that includes information such as blood types of family members, past and current medical conditions, medications and important phone numbers.
JAMES M. WHITE, Lt Col, USAF, MSC
Branch Chief, Joint Regional Medical Plans Office - NW
NORAD-USNORTHCOM Surgeon's Office
Ft. Lewis, WA 98433
http://firearmslawyer.net/blog/index.php/a/2008/01/04/are_you_prepared_lawyers_roles_in_prepar
For further information on Pandemic Flu here is the Government website: http://www.pandemicflu.gov/
